Will Eric Cantor's Loss be Scott Brown's Gain?

Scott Brown's campaign manager has fired off a memo "to interested parties" on what Eric Cantor's primary loss in Virginia means for the U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire.

Colin Reed says the Cantor upset by a Tea Party surging candidate "contains worrisome lessons for Senator Jeanne Shaheen."

Here are Reed's five points, verbatim, from his memo:

1. Supporting President Obama's Immigration Policies Is A Liability 
There is a crisis building on the southern border right now, with large numbers of young people seeking to enter the country illegally, encouraged by the pro-amnesty policies of President Obama and Senator Shaheen. In June 2013, Shaheen voted for the failed Senate amnesty bill, and throughout her career she has repeatedly voted against measures to strengthen border security and fencing. In New Hampshire, polling data shows “widespread opposition” to Shaheen's immigration approach, including a whopping 71 percent of New Hampshire voters who oppose amnesty legislation. The Obama-Shaheen pro-amnesty immigration policies are a non-starter with voters.

2. A Political Wave Is Building And No Incumbent Is Safe 
From the beginning of the cycle, the conventional wisdom surrounding Shaheen’s candidacy is that she has run and won before in New Hampshire, and therefore she will run and win this time, too. Overlooked in that analysis is the danger she faces as a pro-Obamacare Democrat running in a non-presidential election year where anti-incumbent fervor is high and voter intensity favors the Republicans. As Scott Brown said at his exploratory kickoff in March, “A big political wave is about to break in America, and the Obamacare Democrats are on the wrong side of that wave.”

3. Washington Is Toxic
Incumbents who lose touch with their home states do so at their own peril. Voters send senators to Washington to be representatives, not robots. Shaheen's record of voting with Obama 99% of the time is a bold-faced repudiation of her promise to be an independent voice for New Hampshire interests; instead, she’s a blind vote for the Obama agenda.

4. Aggressive Challengers Focused On The Grassroots Get Rewarded
While Senator Shaheen spends the majority of her time in Washington, Scott Brown is taking nothing for granted and running a traditional, retail-heavy New Hampshire-style campaign. Since launching his statewide "Main Streets and Living Rooms Tour" back in March, Brown has crisscrossed the state in a beat-up truck, marching in parades, dropping by diners, attending grassroots meetings, listening and learning. His "Obamacare Isn't Working" tour highlighted the confusion and frustration caused by the Obama-Shaheen health care agenda. Now Scott Brown is in the midst of rolling out a series of policy proposals, starting with making energy more affordable. Also this week, his campaign has been hosting organizational meetings to build a grassroots army at the local level. Later today, the campaign will be unveiling a list of county chairs leading efforts in all ten counties across the Granite State to mobilize volunteer efforts. Next Friday, Brown will participate in a WMUR forum with other GOP candidates, and he's already accepted a televised debate invitation for September.

5. Voters Are Motivated And Turnout Is High
Last night, 65,000 Republican voters cast ballots in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District primary, up nearly 40 percent from two years earlier. These voters are unhappy with the direction of the country under President Obama and motivated to turn out in large numbers, a foreshadowing of what to expect in November. They’re casting votes for change, not the status quo, and in New Hampshire's Senate election, Scott Brown represents a change from the failed policies of President Obama and Senator Shaheen.